下面是小编为大家整理的美国大型银行业：受到多方面影,响【完整版】,供大家参考。
al n
r
te
n
I
-
d e
t
c
i
tr s
Re
C OR E
U.S.
La rg e - Ca p
Ba nks
Po tential
CO VID - 19
EPS
Math
2.0 : Getting
Hit
Fr om
Many
Sid es
Th e b a n k
l a nd sc a pe
i s
c h a n g i n g
very
rapi d l y .
Tw o
w ee ks
a g o
( al th ou gh
i t
f eel s
like
a l ot
l on g e r )
w e
pub li s h e d
a
pi e c e
ti t le d
“ Po ten ti a l CO VI D - 19
E P S
M ath :
Op era ti n g
fr o m
a Po siti o n
o f
S tr en gt h ”
( 3 / 3 / 20 ) .
Si n c e ,
th e r e
h ave
b ee n
s e v e r al
m ate r ial
c h an g e s .
Th e s e
i n c l u de :
a)
a
50 b ps
‘ e m e r g e n c y ’
Fe d
c u t
two
w ee ks
ago
an d
an oth e r
100 b p s
r e du c ti on
I NDU S T RY
UPD A T E
U . S .
La r g e - C a p
Ba nk s PO SI TI V E Unc hang e d
U . S .
La r g e - C a p
Ba nk s J a s o n
M .
Goldb e r g ,
C FA
+ 1
212
526
8580
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
17
M ar c h
2020
Su n da y
n i gh t,
b r i ng i ng
th e
l owe r
b ou n d
to
0 % ;
b )
an oth e r
~2 0 b ps
de c li n e
i n
th e
10 - y ear
treas u ry
y iel d
b r i ng i ng
th e
QTD
de c li n e
to
ov e r
100 b ps ;
c )
a
30 %
dr op
i n
th e
pr i c e of
oil
a s
O PE C +
tal ks
f ell
ap a r t;
d)
a noth e r
15 %
dr o p
i n
th e
S & P
500 ;
e )
th e
lar g e st
b an ks te m por aril y
s u s pe n di ng
s h are
r e pu r c h ase ;
an d
f )
th e
c ou n t
of
c on f i r m e d
C OV I D - 19 c ase s
i n c r easi ng
f r om
r ou gh l y
90 , 300 ,
i n c l u di ng
ove r
100
i n
th e
U . S. ,
to
ove r
175 , 000 g l ob all y
( u p
m or e
than
90 % )
w i th
m or e
than
3 , 800
i n
th e
U . S.
W h il e the
u l ti m a te
i m pac t
o f
COV I D - 19
i s
d i ff i c u l t
to
a ss es s
a t
thi s
j un c tur e ,
i t
i s i m po rtan t
to
n o te
that
the
b a n k i n g
i ndu stry
enters
thi s
s i t u a ti o n
f ro m
a po si t i o n
o f streng th.
Cap ital
( TC E
r ati o )
s ta n ds
at
i ts
h i gh e st
le v el
s i n c e
1940 ,
li qu i di ty ( l oan s / de pos i ts )
ap p r ox i m ate s
i ts
s tr on g e st
le v el
s i n c e
th e
earl y
1980 s ,
c r e di t
qu ality ( NPA
r ati o)
i s
at
i ts
h eal th ie st
le v el
s i n c e
2006 ,
an d
pr of ita b ility
( PPNR/ as s e ts )
i s
m or e than
30 %
above
i ts
h i s tor i c al
ave r ag e .
Th e
i ndu s tr y
h as
c on s i s te n tl y
pa ss e d
Fe d
s tre ss te sts ,
w h i c h
as s um e
a
s e v e r el y
ad v e r s e
s c e n ari o .
Fu r t h e r m or e ,
r e gu lat or s
a r e e n c ou r agin g
u s e
of
th e
di s c ou n t
w i n dow .
R ecent
m o n et a ry
a nd
f i s c a l
po li c y
a nn o un c em ents
shou l d
b e sup po rti v e f o r
the b a n k i n g
i ndu stry ,
wi th
a dd i ti o n a l
m ea sur es
li k el y .
To
da te ,
th e
Fe d
h as
c u t
r ate s
to th e
ze r o
l owe r
b ou n d,
i n c r ease d
Q E ,
l owe r ed
th e
di s c ou n t
w i n dow
b or r owi ng
r ate ,
s ai d i t
w ill
s u pp or t
b an ks
i n
u s i ng
th ei r
c ap ital / li qu i di ty
buff e r s ,
an d
eli m i n ate d
r e s e r v e r e qu i r e m e n ts .
W e
b elie v e
i t
h as
addi ti on al
le v e r s .
O n
th e
f i s c al
f r on t,
th e
U . S.
d e c lare d
a n ati on al
e m e r g e n c y
( f r ee d
u p
$50 bn
i n
ai d),
s u s pe n de d
i n te r e st
p ay m e n ts
on
f e de r al s tude n t
l oan s ,
i n c r ease d
SB A
le n di ng ,
an d
pr om i s e d
to
bu y
“ lar g e
qu an titie s
of
c r u de oil ”
f or
S t r a t egic
P et r oleu m
R e s erv e
( SPR ) .
C on g r e ss
i s
w or ki ng
on
addi ti on al
ai d,
w h ile th e
A dm i n i s trati on
h as
s ai d
i t
i s
l ook i ng
to
h el p
i m pa c t e d
s e c tor s
i n c l u di ng
th e
ai r li n e , c r u i s e
li n e ,
an d
h os p itality
i ndu s trie s .
A ll
of
th e s e
afore m e n ti on e d
f actor s
h ave
th e abil ity
to
r e du c e
l oan
l os s e s .
E ven
under
a c h a ll eng i n g
s c e n a ri o ,
o u r
c o verag e rem a i n s
pr o f i tab l e,
yet
v a l u a ti o n s a re
a pp ro a c h i n g
f i n a n c i a l
c ri si s
l o ws .
As s um i ng
a
150 b p s
i mm e di ate
r e du c ti on
i n r ate s ,
a
r e du c ti on
i n
m os t
f ee
i n c om e
c ate g or ie s
( ou ts i de
of
m or tgage ) ,
l oan
l os s
l os s e s approx i m ati ng
1991 / 2001
r e c e ss i on
le v el s ,
an d
an
eli m i n ati on
of
s h are
r e pu r c h ase s , w ou l d
s h ave
42 %
of f
ou r
m e dian
b an k ’ s
E PS .
Th i s
i s
not
o u r
f or e c as t ,
bu t
m e an t
to s e r v e
as
a
gu i de .
St ill ,
un de r
th at
b ac kdr op
e v e ry
b an k
un de r
c ove r age
r e m ai n s pr of ita b le .
Th e
m e dian
b an k
i s
tr ad i ng
at
0 . 9 x
ta ng i b le
book .
I n
1990 ,
i t
bottom e d
at 0 . 9 x,
i n
2002
i ts
l ow
w a s
2 . 3 x,
an d
i n
2009
i t
r e ac h e d
0 . 7 x.
Not e ,
d u r i ng
th e
f i n an c ial c r i s i s ,
al m os t
two - th i r d s
of
ou r
c ove r age
l os t
m on e y .
j aso n. g o l d b e r g @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
I nna
Bl y akhe r
+ 1
212
526
3904
inna. b l y akhe r @ b a r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
M att he w
Ke ssel haut
+ 1
212
526
0181
m att he w.kessel haut @ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
E ug e ne
Ko y s m an
+ 1
212
526
0971
E ug e ne . Ko y s m an@ba r c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
Br i an
M o r t o n,
C F A
+ 1
212
526
2163
b r i an. m o r t on@ b ar c l ay s . c o m BC I ,
US
B a r c la y s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
d o e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
d o
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v e r e d
i n
i ts
r e s ea r c h
r e p o r ts .
A s
a
r e s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w a r e
t h a t
t h e f i r m
m a y
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t e r e st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
r e p o r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d e r
t h i s
r e p o r t
a s
o n l y
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h ei r
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S C L O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
18 .
O v e r v ie w
Two
wee k s
a g o
( a l tho u g h
i t
f ee l s
li k e a l ot
l o n g er )
w e pu b li shed
a pi e c e ti t l ed
“ P o te n ti a l COV I D - 19
E P S
M a th:
Op era ti ng
f ro m
a
P o si ti o n
o f
Streng t h ”
( 3/ 3 /20 ) .
Si n c e
th e n ,
th e r e h ave
b ee n
s e v e r al
m ate r ial
c h an g e s
i n c l u di ng :
a)
a
50 b ps
‘ e m e r g e n c y ’
Fe d
c u t
two
w ee ks ago
an d
an oth e r
100 b p s
r e d u c ti on
Su n da y
n i gh t ,
b r i ng i ng
th e
l o w e r
b ou n d
to
0 % ;
b ) an oth e r
~ 20 b ps
d e c li n e
i n
th e
10 - y ea r
treas u ry
y iel d
b r i ng i ng
th e
QTD
de c li n e
to
ov e r 100 b ps ;
c )
a
30 %
dr op
i n
th e
pr i c e
of
oi l
as
O PE C +
tal ks
f ell
ap ar t;
d)
an oth e r
15 %
d r op
i n th e
S& P
500 ;
e )
th e
lar g e st
b an ks
te m por a r il y
s u s pe n di ng
s h are
r e pu r c h ase ;
an d
f )
th e c ou n t
of
c on f i r m e d
C OV I D - 19
c ase s
i n c r ea s i ng
f r om
r ou gh l y
90 , 300 ,
i n c l u di ng
ove r
100
i n th e
U . S. ,
to
ov e r
~ 175 , 000
g l ob all y
( u p
m or e
than
90 % )
w i th
m or e
than
3, 800
i n
th e
U . S.
As suc h ,
we
tho u g h t
we
wo u l d
re v i si t
o u r
sty li st ic
ex er c i se ,
w i t h
o u r
u pdate d
a ss u m pt i o n s.
S ta rt ing
f rom
a
Po sit ion
of
Str e ngth
Two
wee k s
a g o
we
a l so
n ot ed
that
w h il e the
u l t i m a te
i m pac t
o f
COV I D - 19
o n
o u r c o verag e i s
un k n own ,
i t
i s
i m po rtan t
to
n o te
that
the
b a n k i n g
i ndu stry
enters
thi s si tuat i o n
f ro m
a po si t i o n
o f
stren g th. W e c o n ti nu e to
b e li eve thi s
i s
the
c a se .
O f
n ote :
C a pi ta l ,
a s
m ea sur ed
by
the
TCE r a ti o ,
st a nd s
a t
i ts
h i g h es t
l eve l
s i n c e 1940
( Fi gu r e 1 ).
I n
addi ti on ,
ou r
G SI B
c ov e r age
h as
ove r
$250 bn
of
c ap ital
i n
e xc e ss
of
th ei r
SL R r e qu i r e m e n t
( i n
a d di ti on
to
on - b al an c e
s h ee t
as s e ts ,
SL R
i n c l u de s
de r i v ati v e
e xpo s u r e s , r e po -s tyle
tr an s ac ti on
e xposu r e s
an d
oth e r
of f - b al an c e
s h ee t
e xposu r e s
i n c l u di ng unfun de d
c om m i tm e n ts ) .
Fu r th e r m or e ,
th e
s u s pe n s i on
of
th e
15 - w ee ks
of
s h are r e pu r c h ase
b y
th e
8
lar g e st
b an ks
e qu ate s
to
ar ou n d
$40 bn
of
f r ee d
u p
c ap ital
o r
$400 bn
i n
addi ti on al
li qu i di ty
f or
th e
s y st e m .
L i q u i d i ty ,
a s
m ea sur ed
by
l o a n s/d epo si ts,
a pp ro xi m a tes
i ts
stro n g es t
l ev el
si n c e the ea rl y
1980 s
( Fi gu r e
2 ).
O u r
G SI B
c ove r ag e
h as
$370 bn
i n
e xc e ss
li qu i di ty
above
th ei r LC R
r e qu i r e m e n t
of
100 %
( an d
th e
F e d
h as
s ai d
th e y
c an
g o
b el ow
100 %
i n
ti m e s
of s tre ss ) .
Re c all ,
th e
LC R
r ati o
i n c l u de s
n e t
c a s h
outflow s
ov e r
a
30 - c ale n da r
da y
s tre ss s c e n ari o
i n c l u di ng
of f - b al an c e
s h ee t
c om m i tm e n ts
( s u c h
as
c r e di t
an d
li qu i di ty
li n e s
to c u s tom e r s ) .
Th e y
al s o
h ave
ex c e ss
li qu i di ty
at
th e
s ub s i di a ry
le v el
th at
i s
not
c ou n te d
i n LC R.
Fu r th e r m or e ,
th e
F e d
l owe r e d
th e
di s c ou n t
r ate
an d
eli m i n ate d
r e s e r v e r e qu i r e m e n ts .
Cred i t
q u a li ty ,
a s
m ea sur ed
by
the
N P A
rat i o ,
i s
a t
i ts
h ea l thi es t
l ev el
s i n c e 2006 ( Fi g...
推荐访问:美国大型银行业：受到多方面影 响 美国 银行业 完整版